Ning-Jia.com

I often need to remind myself what recession, stagflation, depression, and other economic terms mean, so here’s a 2x2 matrix to clarify them.  The y-axis represents inflation (high to low), and the x-axis represents GDP growth (high to low). Even with negative growth, we face two bad scenarios: stagflation (high inflation, low growth) and recession/depression (low inflation, low growth). Stagflation and economic booms are typically temporary because they’re unstable states. Recessions can persist and deepen into depressions, while economic booms can last if central banks fail to manage overheating (e.g., through interest rate hikes). As a Gen-Yer, I barely experienced the last major recession during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009. While the pandemic caused a significant downturn, I don’t expect a repeat (barring some mad scientist unleashing chaos). The GFC is likely a better case study for understanding recessions. Unless the current trade war and tariffs escalate ...

Today, I opened my Goodreads profile and was shocked to find I had only read two books this year. Yes, this year has been like no other, but still, I pondered why I had read only two books when, in other years, I typically read at least a dozen. LLMs. That's the answer. I haven't read any less; I've just customized my reading habits significantly since subscribing to various LLMs. I no longer dive into Wikipedia for hours, falling down rabbit holes of interconnected topics. I no longer go through book after book on a subject. Instead, I pull up an LLM, write a prompt, and ask question after question. Fascinating. Note: This was proofread by Grok.

I n the annals of management, few stories illustrate the essence of true innovation as vividly as Henry Ford's creation of the assembly line. It was not, as popular myth might suggest, an invention born of a fascination with mechanical efficiency or a desire to revolutionize factory processes for their own sake. Rather, Ford's breakthrough stemmed from a singular, customer-focused vision: to sell millions of automobiles at a price point of $500 each, making personal transportation accessible to the average American worker. This was no abstract engineering pursuit; it was a deliberate strategy to create and satisfy a vast market that did not yet exist. The assembly line emerged as a means to that end—reducing production costs from over $800 per Model T in 1908 to under $300 by 1914, enabling the $500 retail price that unlocked explosive demand. Ford understood a fundamental principle of business: production is not an end in itself but a tool to serve the customer. As I have lon...

Better the Devil you know than the Angel you don't. This brings me back to my gaming days, where we would align ourselves on a 2x2 matrix. You can be Good or Evil, but the other axis is Order and Chaos. The Devil you know is often Orderly Evil. And it's funny that the D&D franchise portrays Devils like lawyers, where they often bind human souls into contracts with plenty of fine print. This plays into the notion that "the Devil's in the details." But one thing is for sure: these evil characters actually are very law-abiding. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you have the Angel you don't know. She's benevolent but emotional, so her decisions are driven by anger, joy, sadness, etc. While we trust that she has the best of intentions, when she gets involved, we don't know which side of her will show—creating lots of chaos in the events when she's there. We all have people in mind for all four quadrants. But if given the scenario, do you pr...